Responses to climate change

The role of the science community is to establish what (and if) relationships exist between specific events.

An enormous amount of scientific research has established that during the Earth's 4.5 billion-year history, the climate has varied and changed on a wide range of time scales, due to natural causes and without human activities impacting

While the Earth's climate is dynamic and climate change is normal and continuous, the enhanced greenhouse effect is now theoretically and empirically well-established.

Almost all scientific opinion on climate change, reported by UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and endorsed by national science academies of G8 nations as well as national science academies of Australia and of Brazil, China and India, concludes that global warming is attributable to human activities.

As scientists, we do not presume to tell the community what to do - it is the community’s role to decide what is acceptable and what poses unacceptable dangers on the basis of the science advice.

But as scientists we are greatly concerned that the actions (and inactions) of governments and contemporary reports in the media do not appear to match the extraordinary high level of agreement in the scientific community on the cause of human-induced climate change and the high level of risk that will continue to grow if governments fail to act.

As a consequence the general public are not well informed, and are not yet empowered to to assess the risks posed by global warming, and provide guidance to their elected officials on appropriate responses.

Past global warmings tell us what to expect from future climates and should help us get ready. It is with a sense of urgency that I urge the State and Commonwealth governments to make all efforts to inform the community about climate change that has already occurred and will increasingly manifest in a dangerous changes to global processes, to show strong leadership in practical measures to effectively mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to reduce harm to future generations, and more particularly to prioritise efforts to adapt to the consequences of global warming.

Ray Wills - June 2006

Has the world stopped warming? Judge for yourself at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming - in particular, this graphof gloabl temperatures with a five year average

You can see the average global temperature measured since 1880 - temperature has risen since the mid-1970s with occassional pauses as is best illustrated by the moving 5 year average. Statistically there has been no reduction in global temperatures, and based on the data, warming is following the trends of the last 40 years. The data also illustrates an important point - temperature rise is not linear, but the trend is consistent.

Enhanced greenhouse effect impacts in Western Australia and a call for immediate responses.

The Western Australian Sustainable Energy Association Inc. (WA SEA) urges the WA Government to deliver the highest possible priority to responding to climate change given the latest from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been reported to be the “bleakest yet”.

The most recent report from the IPCC describes increased certainty of dangerous climate change and underscores the need an increased urgency for action on global warming created by human activity.

Forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest global temperatures are likely to rise in the range of 1.8°C to 4.0°C this century. A warming of 1.0°C in Australia is sufficient to move climate belts about 150 km south, and thus a regional change of temperature of 2 °C – the bottom end of the IPCC range - is likely to have a catastrophic impact in Western Australia.

A 300 km shift in climatic bands will change the distribution and abundance of a huge range of species, and impact on agriculture, forestry, tourism and a raft of other economic activities that contributes to the welfare of Western Australian communities.

Western Australia is arguably the first Western economy with measurable economic impact of climate change driven by global warming as demonstrated below:

• WA SW has already suffered a 20% decline in rainfall in the last 30 years - effects on runoff are potentially serious as evidenced by a 50% drop in water supply to the reservoirs supplying Perth - and a further 20% reduction predicted, and this is thought to have already started at the end of the 1990s.
• Water Corporation estimate lost income in water sales in dams is estimated at $1 billion in WA through water restrictions and additions to infrastructure.
• Climate is a key determinant of agriculture and changes in climate will impact on all agriculture - both crops and livestock. Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst, shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates, lower crop quality.
• Wheat growing areas in south west Western Austalia seriously impacted and the northern wheatbelt likely to disappear while production in the remainder greatly reduced, wiping out most of an industry worth more than $2 billion.
• Tree crops are particularly sensitive because of longer lead times to reach production. Changes to stone fruit also be impacted as fruit production requires chilling to create bud set.
• Dairy and beef cattle industry will face decreased pasture production.
• Honey production in Western Australia - some of the highest production rates in the world are also likely to be seriously impacted. Honey industry will face impact as native ecosystems and agricultural systems change, with honey production on the decline, complicated by the invasion of new diseases that will do better in WA's changed climate.
• Climate is a key influence in grape selection. Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions are likely to change the way vineyards operate and will reduce the wine crop - Western Australia produces less than 5% of all Australian wine, but produces about 25% of the wine in the super-premium and ultra-premium categories.
  Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the way vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop. Margaret River climate will be closer to that of Perth, cabernet sauvignon and chardonnay will be lost and varieties suited to warmer climates such as shiraz. The Swan Valley will no longer be suitable for vines.
• With global warming and drying of the south coast in WA, areas with temperature increases > 2° C combined with a decline in rainfall consistently below 400 mm will lead to the loss of many species of Proteaceae in WA's SW - including the iconic Banksia and Dryandra. In addition, the animals that rely on those species for food and shelter will die out.
• Sea levels have risen in Western Australia 18.5 cm in the last 100 years (as globally) with IPCC predictions that this will very probably triple (more than 48 cm) in the next hundred years. The potential for a one metre sea level rise by the end of this century is not an extreme estimate, but is well within the bounds of scientifically-based predictions, and indeed has been forecast by CSIRO.
• With those sorts of rises, much of the low lying areas around areas like Perth, Fremantle, Mandurah and Busselton/Margaret River are under threat, and coastal freshwater swamps will go saline. With much of the coastline of south west Australia a coastal sandplain with many areas well below 20 m above sea level, there is potential for catastrophic impacts over the next few centuries if we get 7 metres of sea level rise.
• Submerged fringing reefs, currently a barrier protecting parts of Perth’s coastline will be further submerged offering less protection and allowing bigger waves to previously sheltered beaches.
• The Indian Ocean has warmed an average 0.6°C since 1960 - only another 0.4°C is needed for widespread and intense coral bleaching. The largest warming occurred off Northwest WA, and it is likely higher ocean temperatures will bleach coral and kill large parts of the Ningaloo Reef  just as higher sea temperatures will kill large parts of the Great Barrier Reef.
• Other WA impacts will be the same as those around the world - on human health, the need for businesses to get ready for climate change and adapt to avoid physical impacts on the whole life cycle of their business including supply chains and infrastructure.

It's time for Australian State and Federal governments to actually do something significant about this grave threat.

The Government must support initiatives that will result in real cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, and not just those that merely slow in growth of emissions.

The Government must also make substantial commitments to the community to get ready for the climate change that has in part already been felt in WA, and will become more severe in the coming decades. Currently Western Australia's total emissions are (as of 2004 as reported to the AGO) 96% above 1990 levels, and without action to reduce emissions projected growth in energy demand will grow emissions to be almost 200% above 1990 levels by 2030.

We will need to think differently. We will need new crops, new cropping systems; new fuels (grow your own), new technology; people willing to change and innovate/ If we were raising kangaroos instead of cattle we would have lower methane emissions and a more drought tolerant stock.

The Carpenter Government's response must include a strong focus on developing a diversity of renewable energy projects that can immediately deliver sustainable energy sources in Western Australia.

In the absence of viable carbon capture and storage, closing old coal-fired power stations and replacing those with more efficient coal-fired, or better yet high efficiency gas-fired cogeneration power stations, and taking greater action on energy efficiency, are immediate and cost effective actions that can be taken.

But this is only one step. Without zero emissions replacing a large part of our current carbon-based energy generation, we will not create real cuts. These actions will only achieving a slow down or at best stopping growth of emissions -  this would not come anywhere close to reducing our emissions back to 1990 levels, let alone a target of 60% below 1990 levels (which is a target WA SEA publicly supports).

Renewable energy is currently the only technology available today and ready to be built today that can, through its deployment, provide deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions while still providing affordable energy generation for the Western Australian community.

For this reason, the Government must establish strong renewable energy targets -  complete with a mechanism for delivery. Anything less than that already proposed in the Western Australian Renewable Energy Target (WARET) bill by the Greens, and supported by the Western Australian Liberal opposition, will be a major disappointment.

The Carpenter Government must take decisive action and seriously commit to the enormous challenge presented by global warming in a sustainable and cost effective manner.

The time to act is now.

Ray Wills, 11 April 2007

Here is a link to the audio of an interview I did on 6PR radio on the 11 April 2007 as well - 15 minutes of audio can be downloaded (15 MB): www.wasea.com.au/downloads/wills6pr11apr07.mp4

Additional information on biota

Forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest global temperatures are likely to rise in the range of 1.8°C to 4.0°C this century (IPCC 2007). A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about 150 km south, and a regional change of temperature in that order is likely to significantly impact on the majority of species.

In this context, climate change is arguably the most important key threatening process to all biota . Biota living in narrow climatic bands are likely to be seriously impacted by climate change.

Pouliquen-Young and Newman (1999) used the BIOCLIM program (Busby, 1991) to generate a climatic envelope combined with soils data from the present distribution of selected species. The study of species of Dryandra found that 26 of the 92 species modeled would become extinct with a temperature rise of 0.5°C; this included all those with a present distribution <1,000 km2. Similarly, a 2ºC rise in temperature would result in the disappearance of 66% of Dryandra species, which are found only in Western Australia, and 100% of Acacia species (Pouliquen-Young and Newman 1999; Pittock, 2003).  Similarly, the temperature tolerance range for 41% of Australian eucalyptus species (including many WA species) is less than 2ºC in mean annual temperature (Hughes, Westoby & Cawsey, 1996).

Similar studies for fauna have suggested that all of the frog and mammal species studied would be restricted to small areas or would disappear with 0.5 °C global-average warming above present annual averages (Pittock, 2003).

Another example can be found in Beaumont and Hughes (2002) who assessed potential changes in the distribution of 77 butterfly species restricted to Australia. Even under very conservative climate change projections they found 88% of species distributions decreased by 2050.

Biota in narrow climatic bands are likely suffer changes in the patterns of distribution and abundance of a range of species. The impacts will be both direct, such as reduced rainfall affecting plant species establishment and persistence, and indirect, such as reduced rainfall impacting bushfire regimes or increased summer rainfall increasing the spread of dieback. It is important for monitoring and ongoing management to recognise that changes may be a consequence of unavoidable impacts resulting from climate change rather than a consequence of the management.

With global warming and drying of the south coast in WA, areas with temperature increases > 2° C combined with a decline in rainfall consistently below 400 mm will lead to the loss of many species of Proteaceae in WA's SW - including theiconic Banksia and Dryandra. With these changes, these species will die out, as will the animals that  live on them.

REFERENCES

Beaumont L. J., & Hughes L. (2002) Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change. Global Change Biology, 8: 954-971.

Hughes L., Westoby M. & Cawsey E. M. (1996) 'Climatic range sizes of Eucalyptus species in relation to future climate change', Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters, vol. 5, pp. 23-9.

IPCC 2007 (ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html).

Pittock, B (ed.) (2003) Climate Change An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts (Australian Greenhouse Office) 239 pp.

Pouliquen-Young, O. & Newman P., (1999): The Implications of Climate Change for Land-Based Nature Conservation Strategies. Final Report 96/1306, Australian Greenhouse Office, Environment Australia, Canberra, and Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia, 91 pp.

OTHER REFERENCES

www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/publications/nbccap-brochure/pubs/nbccap-brochure.pdf

eied.deh.gov.au/biodiversity/publications/nbccap/background.html

www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/overview/pubs/overview3.pdf

www.soe.wa.gov.au/report/fundamental-pressures/climate-change.html

Additional information on sea level

For the last 120 000 years sea level has been much lower than present.

Source: http://users.on.net/~mkfenn/page2.htm

Following the last glacial maximum, the peak of the last ice age about 18,000 years ago, sea level has risen more than 120 metres, including one episode of 25 metre rise in 500 years around 14000 years ago (about 5 metres per century).

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png

See also http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/03/020329072043.htm

Between 6,000 and 3000 years ago, sea level rose two to four metres. Then, from 3,000 years ago to the 19th Century the long term change has been about half a metre - about 2 mm per decade.

Since 1850, the sea level has risen at between one and two cm per decade. In the 20th century average sea level increase was measured at 18.5 cm – about 2 cm per decade.

The natural warming cycle of the earth peaked in the past millenium, reflecting the slow down in the natural warming cycle of the interglacial periods and so the warming and melting of the world's ice reserves. Some scientists suggest that the natural warming event of the interglacial actually ended as much as 5000 years ago, and that expansion of greenhouse gas emissions associated with the rise of modern human societies - that is those that established agriculture and large towns and cities - see explanation in the Anthropocene and Stages of the Anthropocene: Assessing the Human Impact on the Earth System by G Philippon, S Vavrus, J E Kutzbach, W F Ruddiman together with this item.

Now human induced warming is renewing melting, and may do so at a rate unprecedented in the earth’s history. We are measuring increased rates of sea level rise beyond what is projected by IPCC reports (see figure below). In the last decade sea level rise increased 50% - from just under 2 cm per decade over precious decades, to just over 3 cm in the ten years 1996 to 2005. (See also http://sealevel.colorado.edu/)

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/index.html

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_proj_obs_vs_proj.html

The potential for a one metre sea level rise by the end of this century is not an extreme estimate, but is in fact a scientifically-based prediction based on work by the CSIRO and now generally acknowledged as the most likely scenario.

If sea level rises accelerates in this way, increased melting through further global warming suggest sea level rises totalling 5-7 metres in less than 500 years, and potentially in the next 200 to 300 years in the case of substantial global warming scenarios.

Also see - http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn11083

Fuel imports continue to fuel Australia's trade deficit

As Australia increasingly debates responses to global warming, the key to managing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions is getting practical solutions to reduce our energy consumption.

Despite the resources boom, Australia continues to record substantial current account deficits following the record $15.1 billion in the December quarter, fuelled by imports and the failure of export industries to compete. A critical component of the trade deficit in December 2006 and now March 2007 is Australia’s growing importation of fuels and lubricants, seasonally adjusted in the March 2007 quarter up $342m (23%), with crude oil import volumes up 21% and prices up 6% .

Australia has failed to put in place measures to reduce our reliance on imported fossil fuels for transportation. Climate change is a result of our use of energy, and must strive to improve our energy efficiency and reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. Such measures will add to Australia’s energy independence and reduce inflationary pressures on the rising costs of fuel imports, particularly as Australia’s internal reserves are rapidly depleting.

Energy, like water, has always been cheap in Australia, but with increasing reliance on imported fuels, Australians must be prepared to be more frugal with energy, just as we are now addressing a similar issue with water.

The Federal Government to take stronger measures on National Average Fuel Consumption numbers for new passenger vehicles and introduce rolling three year targets on maximum fuel consumption. The Federal Government has been dragging its feet on setting mandated energy efficiency targets for the national vehicle fleet.

Separate targets should also impact on transport/commercial vehicles.  Measures such as this will reduce running costs of Australian vehicles on imported fuels and reduce inflationary pressure on transported goods.

With climate change now rightly recognised as an urgent and pressing issue that must be addressed with practical solutions, it is logical that sustainable energy will play an important role in delivering a raft of affordable and immediately accessible solutions to both reducing greenhouse emissions and providing alternative sources of energy for the world. While technologies like carbon capture and storage will also be important in the longer term, those technologies are still more than a decade away.
The time to act on reducing emissions - and Australia's reliance on inflation-driving fuel imports - is now, and renewable energy and energy efficiency solutions are immediately available.

Ray Wills, 3 May 2007

Extra note - 26 April 2009 - in the last 70 years we have burnt half of the world's oil and petroleum reserves and in another 40 years or so we will burn the remainder. While oil and gas reserves formed over the lsat 300 million years, although most formed in different episodes in the last 100 million years or so , and if all these episodes are agglomerated, represents as consolidated reserves about 40 million years of carbon capture and storage of atmospheric carbon - which humans will then have released by burning as fuel and reinjected into the atmosphere in around just one century. 40 million years of atmospheric change squeezed into 100 years.

Australia is not responding to climate change alone.

Statement by Dr Ray Wills, Chair of Western Australian Sustainable Energy Association Inc

‘The Prime Minister John Howard is absolutely correct in saying we cannot respond to climate change alone.’ says Dr Ray Wills, Chair, WASEA.

‘But Australia is not being asked to – most of the rest of the world is well advanced in setting up strong measures, and Australia needs to catch up. Australia needs to put its shoulder to the wheel and contribute as much as we can, not just that which is convenient.’ says Dr Wills

‘The Prime Minister is also right to say that establishing emissions trading is the most momentous economic decision facing the nation for the next decade, and that the new measures created must last for the next century.’ says Dr Wills.

‘But describing calls for setting significant targets as unrealistic is off the mark – targets that create substantial cuts are not unrealistic, they are essential.’

‘Responding to climate change will create new jobs, not fewer – these will just be in new businesses that are taking up the challenge to take advantage of new opportunities, and the result will be a more sustainable economy’ says Dr Wills.

‘An emissions trading scheme will stimulate the economy and create a market for low emission and renewable technologies. And if Australia invests strongly in such technologies now, these will also be in great demand by the rest of the world striving for a low carbon future and hence stimulate export opportunities for Australia.’

‘Delays in responding are no longer acceptable. The time has run out for solutions to global warming that are merely convenient. We actually need to make an effort - a real, innovative, dedicated, economy-reforming effort. And we need to act today.’ says Dr Wills.

Ray Wills, 3 June 2007

Act Now - the inconvenient truth is time has run out for solutions that are simply convenient - we now need to do what is required.

A succession of reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the most recent in December 2007, describe increased certainty of dangerous climate change and underscore the need for an increased urgency for action on global warming created by human activity.

Climate change induced by global warming will change the distribution and abundance of a huge range of species, and impact on agriculture, forestry, tourism and a raft of other economic activities that contribute to the welfare of Australian communities.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has increased the stakes by indicating a new level of emissions cuts of 85% from 1990 emissions levels is now required to combat dangerous climate change. The number rises as we delay, and the latest IPCC climate report essentially says any further delays on action are no longer affordable.

The IPCC will have been in operation for twenty years this year (2008). The warnings from the IPCC and the science community get more urgent each year not because of hysteria or conspiracy, but because every year for the last two decades we have failed to act on the warnings and the problem only continues to get worse

This has come about because governments all around the world have failed to act - if we do not act decisively now and put solutions in place within the next few years, dangerous climate change will become almost impossible to avoid, and most certainly inconvenient.

Combined with the scenarios released in November 2007 by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in their report Climate change in Australia: technical report 2007, the potential for further abrupt changes in Australia is alarming.

The single largest concern of climate change driven by global warming will be the sudden changes that occur. We have already seen one very clear abrupt climate change event in Western Australia – the loss of rainfall in WA in the mid 1970s, and with potentially a second step at the end of the last decade. Climatic changes are already leading tothe elimination of the northern wheatbelt as a wheat growing area, the demise of the best grape growing regions in the south-west is likely to follow. And abrupt climate change will cause havoc not just in our agricultural systems.

Global warming will ultimately result in climate changes in Western Australia that will, on the basis of the CSIRO report, will cause the extinction of many of our most recognizable species such as Banksia and Acacia. The damage reported in the Kalbarri National Park this year is the same event that is severely impacting on our farmers in the northern wheatbelt.

All of our infrastructure built in the last century is at risk, built to the specifications of one in 100 year storm events, which in this century will prove to be one in 25 or one in 15 or year events – or less. And within this century, sea levels rise will reshape our coastline.

But still we are not acting with urgency.

We do not have decades to respond to this – we have already had decades. It is time to take the heat out of this problem.

We should have acted on global warming in the last century when the first science based warnings were forthcoming. We are now out of time and significant climate change can no longer be avoided. We must act decisively now if the most dangerous of climate change is to be averted.

And the biggest danger from the ongoing work on the science of climate change is not ‘pessimism’ but the reverse - science is inherently conservative. It is likely future forecasts of climate impacts will be greater, not smaller, just as has occurred in the last six years. Interim targets set conservatively now are almost a guarantee of doing too little, of creating measures that are simply too small.

Ray Wills - 31 December 2007

Here are links to some recent radio interviews and presentations:

Perth Radio Station 6 PR with presenter Steve Gordon talking about renewable energy on 5 January 2008 - interview link here. (6PRSteveGordonwills5jan08.wma - file is 10 MB)

Perth Radio Station ABC 720 with Morning Show presenter Geoff Hutchison talking about sea level rise in Western Australia on 22 February 2008 - interview link here. (ABC720Mornings_geoff-raywills-sealevels.mp3 File is 6 MB)

A presentation to the PaperlinX Environmental Forum - 22 February 2008 - Paperlinx is a leading global supplier of paper manufacturing paper in Australia and commiting to FSC Australia standards.

A presentation to the WALIS Teachers Forum Thursday morning 13 March 2008 on Climate Change (large file - 16 MB) and a separate shorter presentation to the main forum on the afternoon 13 March 2008.

An interview on RTR FM Understorey - RTRFM's environmental program. Interview on 18 March 2008 with Matt Porter on renewable energy - interview starts about 5 minutes in...

I have presented at over 50 conferences and workshops in the last 12 months

- here are various (shortened) powerpoint slides have done for

Country Women's Association of WA - CWA talk July 2007

Spatial Sciences Institute (SSI) - the national body combining the professional disciplines of surveying, mapping, engineering & mining surveying SSI talk July 2007

NGIS breakfast on 2 August 2007 - shortened powerpoint here.

Presentations to the MOSS Workshop in Perth 2 Aug 2007 are here and here

Presentation at the Critical Horizons Renewable Energy Seminar 22nd November 2007 hosted by the South West Development Commission on the topic of “Renewable Energy” and focussing on geothermal - shortened powerpoint here.

The most recent are:

Presentation at the Spatial Sciences Institute (SSI) - July 2008 conference Influencing Energy Efficiency with Spatial Analysis 24 July 2008

Mid West Science Forum in Geradton 13 August 2008 - Responding to climate change - challenges, responsibilities, opportunities

Australian Insititute of Energy 2008 Conference 14 August 2008 - PV or NPV: getting homes and small business to invest in renewable energy

See

Climate politics in action

Information sources on climate change

Scitech website item

Back to Ray's Home Page

Created: July 23, 2006

Last updated: April 26, 2009